Long ago I saw a great cartoon by S. Harris.  Two scientists are reviewing a mathematical equation on a chalk board.  One says to the other “I think you should be more explicit here in step two”.  The entire equation appears to be complex math but step two simply says “Then a miracle occurs.”  

This spectacular cartoon really struck a chord with me.  I owned a small consulting firm and our primary business was implementing General Ledger Software for large insurance companies.  Very often, we were trying to save projects that were in a lot of trouble.  These were not three day, get off the plane with a briefcase, and say something smart engagements.  They were big, twenty man year, efforts under great duress for timing and success.  Frequently, we got the call because the implementation team was in distress and we had a track record for making these systems work.  

Very often, the project was floundering because no one could figure out how to design and implement a critical system component.  Instead of solving the problem and creating a comprehensive design that would work from beginning to end, the project team simply bypassed the issue.  They inserted a  “Then a miracle occurs” step and moved ahead to other aspects of the implementation.  Down the road, the implementation team realized that there may not be a solution to the “miracle” step or there may not be a solution that will work with everything else they had designed.         

Our consulting methodology was simple.  If we could not design a solution that addressed every aspect of the desired functionality, we could not move forward.  If we can’t design it, we can’t build it.  Building takes a lot of time, effort, and money.  We aren’t incurring any building costs without a rock solid design. 

Miracles are truly acts of a Supreme Being and we never saw very many of them in our business.  We had to know that we could make the software solve the client’s problem, with no Divine Intervention, or we did not get past “step two.”  I bought tee shirts with Mr. Harris’s cartoon for my consulting team.

Unfortunately, the “Then a miracle occurs” methodology for problem solving has become very popular and very common for Americans.  Here are a few examples.

“Then a miracle occurs” with my student loan.  

Like it or not, student loans have major financial impact on many Americans.  Many students do not treat them with the respect they deserve, however.  I have a friend who borrowed $80,000 to attend college.  He was able to avoid working while in school and even had sufficient cash to buy a fine guitar and surf board.  He was adamant that college days were not all about studies.  He needed to expand his social horizons as well.  Eventually, he stepped out into the working world with a BS in Psychology, a 2.6 GPA, fond memories, and $80,000 of debt.  Each year in school I would ask if he thought his higher education was going to provide sufficient income to pay back the loans and support his Bohemian lifestyle.  His response, “No problem.  I’m going to make a lot of money.”  “Then a miracle occurs!!” 

Now that he is five years past graduation and working as a Barista (truly a great and enjoyable job for him), he complains bitterly about the inherent inequity of student loans.  He should not be required to shoulder the odious burden of this kind of debt, especially at his income level.  All student loans should be forgiven.  Why, even bankruptcy may not resolve his student loan debt!  How unfair! 

Unfortunately, barring a direct act from the Almighty, there is no easy solution to my friend’s problem. There is absolutely nothing wrong with working at a job you really enjoy for lower wages.  However, when you’re designing your life, you better not ring up $80,000 in student loans if you are not planning on sufficient income to repay them.        

I have another acquaintance who is solving the student loan challenge very creatively.  Her job and lifestyle have made it impossible to repay her student loans.  She is 70 years old and has been a full time student for more than 50 years.  Obviously, she loves school and can attend evening classes.  Because she has always been more than a “half time student” as defined by the Federal Government, she has not triggered the requirement to begin repaying her loans.  With compound interest, the loan balances must be staggering.  I asked if she will ever start making loan payments.  She said, “I intend to die as a full time student.  I never plan on making a single payment.”  50 years as a full time student is a little extreme but it does solve the loan dilemma and is not “Then a miracle occurs.”  It is a planned solution that works for her. Ultimately, the loan burden will pass to someone else in the form of higher interest rates to cover defaults.

On a macro basis, student loans are a massive problem.  According to the Federal Reserve, total student loan debt on March 31, 2023 was $1.77 trillion second only to mortgage debt.  So if somebody short of God Almighty bails out the students, it would probably have to be the United States Government.  Not a lot of people with pockets that deep.  If congress decides tomorrow to pay off all the student loans, they have to come up with 40% of all the 2023 tax revenues for this single expenditure.         

“Then a miracle occurs” with my retirement account.

Far and away, the best example of “Then a miracle occurs” methodology in our country is retirement planning. 

In November 2023, Forbes determined that the average retirement savings for Americans aged 50 – 59 is $175,400.  This will generate a monthly retirement income of $878.  Let’s say that these Americans made enough to maximize social security contributions for most of their working lives.  That may add another $2,500 per month to the pot.  Retirees in this group may have to live on less than $40,536 of income per year.  If they maximized social security contributions they have been accustomed to six digit income for a long time.  Clearly, their standard of living is going to take a giant step backward.  

Many of my friends are in this boat.  What is amazing is that it has always been very easy to determine how much funding is required for a comfortable retirement. For example, if a 23 year old contributes $5,500 a year into her or his IRA and earns a 6% overall return, they will have $1 million in the account at age 65.  Using the 6% assumption, this would generate $5,000 per month without ever taking out any of the principle.  A much better income number than the current average of $878 per month.  Add in the $2,500 per month Social Security Benefit and annual retirement income is $90,000.

Okay, your saying “How can a 23 year old put $5,500 into a 401K?”   Easily.  At 23, I am going to find a job that pays at least $50,000 per year.  With a few months training I could learn to drive a truck and make $60,000 to $80,000.  That $5,500 contribution is going to get a lot smaller.  First, I am absolutely, going to find an employer that matches my IRA contribution.  Now I only have to put in $2,750 a year.  Second, my IRA contribution is tax deductible.  At a 20% tax rate, Uncle Sam is going to pay another $550 of the annual amount by lowering my taxable income.  For a mere $2,200 a year I have the retirement challenge covered.  That’s less than the cost of my annual pilgrimage to Las Vegas. 

Anyone can get this financial information from the internet with less than an hour of effort.  Why have so few Americans done this?  Why have so few people engineered their way into a situation that will help them cover their retirement needs?  For many years I have talked with friends who say “I know I should start funding my retirement account but I really don’t have the money right now.  The Beemer lease payment is putting the squeeze on me.  I’ll double up next year.  I can work this out.”  “Then a miracle occurs.”  Retirement funding, with small, reasonable contributions, only works if you start when you are young, contribute every year, and let compound interest build your nest egg. 

The tax laws regarding retirement funding are the best benefit that the government has ever offered to US citizens.  You make a deposit in an investment account and actually get a tax deduction for simply saving your own money.  Earnings on the principle are not taxable until you withdraw the money after retiring.  Tax wise, it does not get any better than this!!  

Nothing is easier to compute, easier to plan for, and easier to fund.  Yet, the average retirement savings for men and women aged 50 – 59 is $175,400.  Again, we need real intervention from a Supreme Being to help these folks retire comfortably.                           

“Then a miracle occurs” with legalized marijuana.

Legalizing marijuana has become a very popular social issue.  Most Americans favor legalizing the drug for both medical and recreational purposes.  Competent adults should be able to use cannabis, without criminal repercussions, just as competent adults use alcohol.  “I live in Colorado.  Marijuana is legal.  I can enjoy the drug with no consequences!”  “Then a miracle occurs.”

Although marijuana use is legal in Colorado and other states, so is drug testing by employers.  In fact, for many occupations, drug testing is required by law.  DOT says that you cannot drive a truck, bus, train, ferry, or plane if you can’t pass a drug test.  You can’t be a mechanic for public transportation equipment, you can’t be an air traffic controller.  You can’t build roads. These rules apply to government employees and any contractors who perform similar tasks.  56% of companies in the United States have drug testing programs to ensure that their employees are fully functioning when they are on the job.  Supposedly, the biggest log jam with improving Florida’s highway infrastructure, is finding construction workers who can pass the mandatory drug tests.  Legalized marijuana in Florida is not likely to make the pool of prospective workers any larger.

In the private sector, testing programs are not, simply, altruistic initiatives by responsible employers.  Most of the time they are requirements that the companies cannot avoid.  They are required by the insurance companies that underwrite liability insurance for these employers.  Amalgamated Property and Casualty is not going to sell a policy to Acme Bridge Construction, Inc. in Denver if they discontinue testing steeple jacks for marijuana usage.  In essence, if the company does not ensure safe working practices by their employees, they cannot buy liability insurance. In litigious America, Acme is not moving forward without insurance.  One claim and they will lose their company. 

A key problem with drug testing (and very possibly with the drug) is that marijuana has a long residual marker.  Depending upon the level of usage, someone may fail a drug test weeks or months after they last used the drug. 

So steeple jack Bob, in Castle Rock, may be getting real relief from the high stress of building bridges with a soothing brownie every evening and find himself out of a job with the next random drug test.  This conundrum is not going to disappear.  It may be legal to use marijuana.  It is also legal (and in many cases mandatory) for employers to fire all employees who test positive for doing so.

Summary

In one small cartoon, S. Harris captured the methodology so many of us follow in modern America.  If something is complicated or painful, let’s not address it right now.  We have most of the answers or at least some of answers.  We have a lot of skill and daring.  We can handle anything that comes along.  The law of limited resources is way over rated.  The government will bail us out.  Let’s get moving.  We don’t need a stinking plan! 

This line of thinking created a lot of profits for my consulting business when my clients realized it doesn’t work.        

“Then a miracle occurs.”  Whether or not you believe in a personal God you have to admit that we have not seen a lot of concrete evidence that miracles are occurring for any of these challenges.

Author’s note:  This article is a departure from the typical “foibles of life” rants that I post each week.  We are approaching the Medicare enrollment season, and I am frequently asked about the differences between Traditional Medicare with a supplement and Medicare Advantage coverage. So this is a serious article that attempts to contrast these two alternatives and highlight the historical factors that created two very different products.  Most of you will not be interested in Medicare alternatives and may want to pass on this week’s post.  A number of you, however, may find the information helpful as you review your Medicare options for 2024.      

A few months ago a friend of mine asked me a question about Medicare.  He was retired and his previous employer switched all of the retirees to a Medicare Advantage program for their health insurance benefits.  He asked, “What in the world is Medicare Advantage and is it my only Medicare option?”

Medicare Advantage is an interesting challenge.  

A little background about Medicare can help us understand how we moved to the current environment of Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage.  

The Evolution of Medicare

Medicare is not very simple.  The primary reason for the complexity is that it is such an incredibly expensive undertaking by the Federal Government.  Next to Social Security, it is the largest expenditure in the federal budget.  How expensive?  In total, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) spent $1.48 trillion in fiscal 2023 for Medicare and Medicaid benefits.  Total tax revenues for the Federal Government for fiscal 2023 were $4.5 trillion.  So 33% of the tax dollars went to government sponsored healthcare programs.  That leaves 67% for all of the other products and services the Federal Government supplies.  Things like Social Security and national defense.  Even senate bean soup. Our elected officials cannot simply wave a magic wand and pay for Medicare.  It is too big, even for them.  So many of the strange provisions of Medicare are directed to keeping costs in line with what the Federal Government can afford.    

Over the years, the US Government has tried to accommodate the ever rising cost of healthcare by tweaking Traditional Medicare.  First they increased premiums. Costs kept rising. So they limited benefits and sheared off optional coverage for Medicare recipients.  They established a series of Medicare Supplement coverages that could be purchased from independent insurance companies, passing, perhaps, 20% of Medicare costs back to the recipients.

Today, Traditional Medicare is a standard policy for the entire country. It is totally controlled by one entity, the granddaddy of all insurance companies, the Federal Government.  It provides access to nearly every healthcare provider in the country and there is no arguing or debating over the benefits that will be paid.  Every healthcare entity must accept the compensation documented in the CMS rating schedule. The optional Supplemental coverages are totally regulated by CMS.  If a claim is accepted by Medicare as the primary insurer, it has to be accepted by the Medical Supplement insurer as the secondary insurer.  The required coverages for all of the Supplemental Plans are the same.  Aetna’s Supplement G will not have benefits that differ from Blue Cross Supplement G.

Traditional Medicare is comprehensive and easier to administer because there is one set of rules controlled by CMS.  However, it is not inexpensive and healthcare costs continued their steep rise.

So the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the health insurance industry and the healthcare industry searched for a new program to control Medicare Costs. The result was Medicare Advantage which is also referred to as MedAdvantage or Medicare Part C.   

Whereas most of the risk for Traditional Medicare is assumed by the Federal Government, nearly all of the risk for Medicare Advantage is assumed by private insurance companies.  The US Government pays the private insurers a premium of, approximately, $1,100 a month for each Medicare Advantage enrollee.  The private insurance companies are on the hook from there.  If it is a bad year for medical claims, the insurance companies lose not the Federal Government. On a personal level, you can appreciate the huge cost of Medicare.  The Federal Government is actually paying a $2,200 per month premium for a two person household.  If they did not, how would you like to factor this expenditure into your monthly budget?   The insurance company is the primary insurer and the private insurance companies provide all of the Medicare Part A benefits (hospitals), Medicare Part B benefits (physicians) and all of the Medicare Part D (prescription drug benefits). 

How can private insurers provide coverage at less cost than CMS? 

First, they establish networks of health care providers and negotiate lower benefit payments with hospitals and doctors in the networks.  For example, The Acme Insurance Company will go to Megopolis Health Systems and negotiate a much lower rate for services than the standard Medicare rate.  Why would Megopolis agree?  Acme may have a substantial number of Medicare Advantage policyholders in the geography covered by Megopolis.  If Megopolis cannot agree on an appropriate rate and become a member of the Acme network, they will not have these policy holders as patients.  Acme will continue to negotiate unique rate structures for as many providers as possible in the same region.  Ultimately, Acme wants to create a network of substantially all doctors and health care facilities in a region who will be paid discounted fees for the services they provide. 

Second, the private insurers do not have to offer all of the benefits that Traditional Medicare offers.  The benefits are robust and the plans must be approved by CMS.  Covered medical benefits may be very similar but not identical.  It is a safe bet that any differences will result in fewer benefits in the Medicare Advantage plans. 

Third, Medicare Advantage plans offered by independent insurers require pre approval for healthcare services much more often than Traditional Medicare.  In theory, the insurance companies are ensuring that the services appropriately qualify for coverage.  In reality, the prequalification may significantly delay services and, often, the insurance companies inappropriately declined services that should have been approved.  For example, in 2021, there were 35 million requests for pre-approval by Medicare Advantage policy holders.  2 million were denied.  11% of the 2 million appealed the denial and 82% of the appeals were won by the policyholders.

Fourth, Medicare Advantage policies have a very wide range of options for deductibles, co-insurance and maximum out of pocket limits for approved claims.  Often, they achieve zero premium coverages by bumping up the amounts policyholders must absorb when they submit claims.   

Fifth, the Medicare Advantage offer includes a Medicare prescription drug benefit.  The formulary is reviewed and approved by CMS.  However, it is the result of the best negotiation the private insurer can strike with pharmacies and drug companies.  With Traditional Medicare, the policyholders can choose from any of the Medicare D policies that are offered in their region.  Typically there are twenty to thirty options and some are much more favorable to some insureds than others.  For example, I had a prescription change in 2024.  I have Traditional Medicare.  My current drug plan indicated that my out of pocket costs for 2024, with the new drug, would be more than $59,000.  I chose a different plan with a different formulary and my total out of pocket cost is less than $3,500.  If I was enrolled in Medicare Advantage, I could not make that change.     

Medicare Advantage did a great job of achieving cheap.  By driving down benefit costs, private insurers can offer a number of additional benefits to their policyholders.  Frequently, they tacked on wellness programs, vison coverage, hearing coverage and dental coverage to the medical benefits required for all plans by CMS.  Often the private insurers would establish very favorable rates with the health care providers to the extent that no premium was required from the Medicare recipients.

Medicare Advantage products may be sold to individuals or to large employers for their entire group of retirees.  

What keeps private insurance companies from raking in extraordinary profits with their Medicare Advantage products?  Two significant factors.  First the Federal Government, through CMS, pays the lion’s share of the premiums.  CMS understands Medicare better than anyone and they are very careful to ensure that the premiums they pay private insurers are not egregious.  More importantly, private insurance is a highly competitive capitalistic enterprise.  There are dozens of Medicare Advantage plans offered by many different companies.  If one insurance company gets strong handed with the rates they offer to their Healthcare Provider base, another company will negotiate a better deal with those providers.

A final complicating factor with Medicare Advantage is that you may not be able to switch from Medicare Advantage to Traditional Medicare if you have significant health issues.  The Federal Government stood on the soap box with the Affordable Care Act and preached that pre-existing conditions should all be eliminated from every health insurance plan.  Traditional Medicare has one.  If you do not sign up for a Medical Supplement when you first enroll in Medicare, you may be required to pass a health care review before being allowed to enroll in the future. So, signing up for the cheap Medicare Advantage product when you are completely healthy and switching to Traditional Medicare when you develop a particularly dangerous form of cancer may not be possible.      

The Dilemma

For many years, the primary emphasis for modifications to Medicare has been directed to controlling costs.  There has not been a lot of change that impacts the usefulness of Medicare to the millions of Americans enrolled in the program.  Because of the variability of Medicare Advantage, evaluating whether to enroll in Traditional Medicare or Medicare Advantage is difficult.  No matter which direction you go, you gain something and lose something.  Finally, the factors impacting the decision are definitely not the same for everyone.

If you are totally healthy and do not plan on having any major healthcare issues until a few days before you die, Medicare Advantage is for you.  If you are planning on developing a dread disease that only a few doctors at the Mayo Clinic and Johns Hopkins can treat, Traditional Medicare is for you.  The obvious problem is that we cannot know the answer to either of these health situations before we enroll in a Medicare Plan.  So the dilemma is “do I go with cheap because I’m healthy or do I go with the more expensive plan because I have the most options if something bad happens?” 

The friend who asked me the question about Medicare Advantage is retired from a very large company in Southeastern Michigan.  The Preferred Provider network offered by the private insurer includes all of the major healthcare providers in the region, including the “gold standard” University of Michigan system.  This may work very well as long as he lives in Ann Arbor.  Many of the company’s retirees have moved.  The benefit does not look so good for some of those participants.  The Medicare Advantage networks in Jacksonville Florida, Minneapolis Minnesota and Phoenix Arizona are not as appealing because the Mayo clinic does not accept Medicare Advantage patients. However, the Mayo does accept Traditional Medicare.  A few who have moved to Whidbey Island Washington may have very poor choices in a network that is primarily focused on Southeastern Michigan. In essence, the usability of a regional PPO network may be better suited to a group that all live in the same region.

Drugs can be a huge expense.  Do I want to be limited to the single drug plan of my Medicare Advantage carrier or should I enroll in a Traditional plan that will allow me to change Medicare D plans based on changes in my prescriptions?  In my case, enrolling in a Traditional plan dropped my drug charges $55,500 a year.  For me, a Traditional Policy was far less expensive than a Medicare Advantage policy.

Summary

So my friend has this choice. 

He can stay with the Medicare Advantage plan offered by his employer.  He will have Silver Sneakers wellness, a vision policy, a hearing policy and dental coverage.  There is no premium required to participate.  In fact, whether or not coverage is provided by his employer, there are a number of Medicare Advantage plans that have little or no premiums.  Currently, he and his spouse are in good health and all of their doctors are in the PPO associated with the plan.  He will have to accommodate the cumbersome pre authorization process for many healthcare procedures.  He may not be as pleased with the network options if he moves from Southeastern Michigan.  He will have to use whatever drug coverage is offered by the Medicare Advantage insurer.  He will have to pay a combined premium for him and his spouse of $350 per month for the required Medicare Part B.

My friend can drop the employer coverage and sign up for a Traditional Plan with Supplement G.  A health review may be required.  If the two pass the review, total premiums for him and his spouse will be approximately $750 per month (including the $350 Medicare Part B premium).  So the premium differential for two people is $400 per month.  With this plan, he can become a patient of any health care provider in the country and have 30 different options for drug coverage.  This is the best possible hedge against a catastrophic health event in the future.

In spite of what the marketing people may say, Traditional Medicare is an apple and Medicare Advantage is an orange.  Far and away, most of the effort directed to improving the products has been to address the challenge of continually rising healthcare costs.  For you, MedAdvantage may or may not be less expensive.  It is very challenging to accurately make that determination.  However, a lot is riding on this decision.  We all need to know what the real impact is for us before we make it.

My wife and I relocated our family from Ann Arbor Michigan to Jacksonville Florida in 1974.  At that time, the population of Jacksonville was 350,000.  We asked the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce for information about the city.  They summarized the ethnicity of the city as follows: “3% of the population are of Asian descent.  15% are from Europe.  All the rest are Southerners.”

I took a position as Controller of an insurance company and quickly found that at least 80% of my coworkers were from the South.  I had a language problem.  I neither spoke nor understood Southern.  All of my associates were very patient and helpful.  They welcomed our family with open arms and taught me how to understand and eventually, speak the language fluently.

Let’s start simply with the most common Southern expression.  Y’All.  First, this is a one syllable word.  It is definitely not pronounced “You All”.  It is not “Ya All”.  It is a homonym of Yawl and it rhymes with Call.  One syllable.  Most southern accents may drag out the alllll part a little but it is still one syllable.  Contrary to popular belief, it is always plural.  If you ask one person if they are going to the ball game this afternoon and you say “Y’All going to the game?”  They will think you are from Hoboken New Jersey.  Some have inferred that “Y’All” is singular and that the plural is “All Y’All”.   That is incorrect.  Beauregard’s History of Southern Expression clearly notes that “Y’All” is plural. “All Y’All is creeping into the Southern language.  Occasionally, a citizen from Valdosta will use “All Y’All” to refer to a very large group or “whole passel” of people.

Albany Georgia is pronounced differently than Albany New York.  The Georgia city is “all benn’ nee” with the accent on the second syllable.  Other cities in Georgia include Houston, which is pronounced “house ton” not “hue ston”.  Berlin Georgia, in Southern, is “burr’ lin” with the accent on the first syllable as opposed “burr lin’ the capital of Germany. Vienna Georgia is “vie enna”, with a long I, not “vee enna”, with a long E.      

Jacksonville natives do not greet you by saying hi or hello.  They say “Hey”.  “Hey Sue!  Are you having a good day?”  If Sue indicates that she is not feeling well.  The southerner will reply “I’m sorry you’re feeling puny.”  In Michigan you’re sick. In Jacksonville you’re puny.  If you are puny and have a headache, you might want to take a Goody’s Powder.                 

The really spectacular element of the Southern language are the expressions.  I had the great fortune to work with a person from LA.  To Southerners, LA is not a city in California.  When you say LA in Jacksonville, you are referring to Lower Alabama.  In fact, this person was from Dothan.  Jim had the best expressions and the best speaking style in the world.  Here are some examples.

We sat through a vendor presentation on accounting systems and I asked Jim what he thought.  Jim was very skeptical that the system could do everything the representative claimed. “I think he’s peeing on our shoes and telling us it’s raining.”  In addition, he did not think the presenter was overly bright.  Jim added “That boy reminds me of Paul Revere.  Light in the belfry.”  If Jim was buried in work he was “Busier than a one legged man in an ass kickin contest”.   Can you get this job done today, Jim?  “It’s no hill for a stepper. I might could have it by three.”  What do you think of that barbecue Jim?  “It went down better than a chubby kid on a teeter totter.”   Hey Jim.  You doing all right?  “I’m great! Never had more nor wanted less.” Jim never did anything on the weekend he would do it on “Saturday or Sunday, one”.  

Jim had a dog.  A Blue Tick hound.  His name was Rolex.  I said what a great name for a dog.  How did you come up with that?  Jim said he’s a watch dog.

Jim spoke with a big booming voice.  If you closed your eyes you thought you were listening to Foghorn Leghorn.  Hopefully, Y’All remember the big chicken on Looney Tunes who was constantly pursued by Henrietta the Hen and the little Chicken Hawk.  Foghorn was always talking very loudly saying things like “If that kid… I say… If that kid don’t quit talkin, he’ll get his tongue sunburned.”  No doubt the genius Mel Blanc spent some time in Dothan Alabama because everyone there sounds like Foghorn Leghorn.

In a few months at the insurance company I was taught to “Mash on the light” if the room was dark and to “Let the Big Dog Eat” if I had to accelerate to pass another car.  “It’s coming up a cloud” if the afternoon thunder storm was forming and “It’s a frog strangler” when the down pour started.  I learned that “The big raccoon walks at midnight” if you were behind early in a poker game and “It’s hard to come back if you’ve never been there.”    

Great expressions.  Great humor.  Great people.  Great values.  We have enjoyed Jacksonville so much that we have stayed here for almost 47 years.

The metropolitan area has grown a little from 350,000 citizens to 1,350,000. There are large pockets where the Southern influence has completely disappeared.  Of course, this is happening everywhere in the United States.  Regionalism and colloquialisms are on the wane.  We all are starting to sound like TV commentators. 

I would love nothing better than to have a long slow supper at Jim’s house.  He could regale Sue and me with all of the interesting things that have happened to him in the last 30 years.  After a couple gallons of syrupy sweet tea and a few beers we would wrap up around midnight.  Jim would say he hadn’t had this much fun since “Granny’s goat roping” and he would invite us back with “Y’All come back! Heah?” 

Life would be great.  “If I was any better I would be twins.”  Damn.  I need to find a place to go and speak more Southern.  I may book a leisurely visit to Dothan. I could go on ‘Saturday or Sunday, one”.             

I was reminiscing the other day about the great Flip Wilson.  In the sixties and seventies he hosted a classic variety show on network TV.  As I remembered, he was the absolute master of the “shaggy dog” story.  Long involved stories that would run for many minutes and culminate in a real groaner punch line.  This was perfect humor for me. 

I had not actually viewed one of Flip’s performances in more than forty years so I thought my memories may be aggrandized and inaccurate.

Through the wonders of modern home entertainment, I did a search for Flip Wilson and found that an obscure “oldies” streaming service carried the original Flip Wilson show.  I dialed in the first episode. As it turns out my recollections underestimated the length and depth of Flip’s story telling.  He opened his first show with two hilarious Flip Wilson Stories.  One even included Geraldine.  They ran on forever.  It took more than fourteen minutes to tell two jokes.  The stories were hilarious and they ended with the worst pun like punch lines.  This was even better than I had remembered.

So I thought I would share a few Flip Wilson Stories with you.  These are not jokes actually told by the great comedian.  Relaying the two jokes he told in Season One, Episode One would require a hundred page post.  These are jokes that I have always categorized as Flip Wilson Stories.  If told properly, the people hearing the jokes may believe that they are actually real events until you pop them with the punchline.

Story One.

Rene Descartes spent many years developing his philosophies in Vienna.  He spent hours in the coffee houses extrapolating complex theories with a number of other great thinkers in the city. 

Overtime, he and Wolfgang Schmidt became great friends.  Wolfgang’s day job was training the, world renown, Lippizan Stallions.

One day, Wolfgang was running a horse through his paces when Rene burst into the stables.  Rene said, “Wolfgang! I haven’t slept in three days!  I believe that I have developed a proof for an amazing theory about humanity.  I believe I have all of the elements in place to prove that we can validate our existence simply because of our cognitive capabilities.  I call it ‘I think, therefore I am’.  You need to run through the proof with me.  It’s revolutionary!”  

“Wow!  That’s terrific Rene.  I really should put more time in with this stallion before tonight’s performance.  However, I don’t want you to lose these valuable thoughts.  Let’s get some coffee and chocolate and run through the entire theory.”  

“Thank you Wolfgang.  I really appreciate it.”  Little did Wolfgang know that he was already part of a significant human event. 

This was the first recorded incident of a man putting Descartes before the horse.

Story Two.

A man owned a dog that was overly protective.  The dog was congenial with his family, the clan, but was constantly nipping at anyone who visited his home.  He tried all of the classic techniques to stop the animal from biting but had no success.  Finally, he retained a dog whisperer. 

The trainer said that one simple change would break the biting habit.  The owner needed to give his pet piano lessons.  If given instructions on how to play classical music the dog would stop chewing on his guests.  The trainer said, “I know this sounds ridiculous but, in my opinion, it is probably the only cure for the problem and it has been successful with other clients.”

So the owner googled “Animal piano teachers specializing in canines and classical music.”  There were eighteen within five miles of his house.  He sent an email to the first instructor on the list and made an appointment for the following Monday.  After an hour lesson the instructor said that Fido was off to a great start.  If the owner wanted to continue the lessons, give him another call.

The owner returned home and tested Fido.  He put the dog on the front porch.  The mailman came by and the dog didn’t budge.  Amazon dropped off three big boxes, Fido never got off the welcome mat. He ordered a pizza from dominos and DoorDash from the Chop House.  The dog could care less.

The owner was overjoyed and extended the lessons, indefinitely.  Every Monday at 3:00 PM he spent an hour cleaning up his emails while his dog continued the classical music lessons.  Fido never nipped at anyone starting with the first lesson. 

Finally, after eleven months, the owner decided that, with all of these lessons, he should ask his friends over to listen to Fido play the classics.  He rented a concert size Steinway piano.  He retained the Ritz Carleton to cater the event and he invited twelve close friends over for the performance.

As it turns out, Fido was a terrible pianist.  Friends started to leave after a few minutes.  The longest one stayed for eleven minutes.  Nine months of continuous lessons and the music was unbearable. The next day the owner called the piano instructor and cancelled the lessons. 

It was very clear that Fido’s Bach was worse than his bite.   

Story Three (perhaps the world’s shortest Flip Wilson Story)

I just read an interesting story about David Copperfield.

Early in his career he used a lot of white rats in his tricks.  He bought some from a pharmaceutical company and found them to be very agitated and skittish.  It turns out that the critters had been used in heroin addiction experiments.  David was very sensitive to the welfare of the animals he used in his show, so he very patiently withdrew all of the rodents from their addictions.

As it turns out, he was the first magician, ever, to pull a habit out of a rat.

So Flip was the greatest.  I encourage you to dial in his old shows.  His verbal and physical comedy is incredible.  He will start on a Flip Wilson Story.  As the plot unfolds, he will bring in Reverend Leroy from the Church of What’s Happening Now or Geraldine or somebody else.  There will be five to ten great belly laughs before he gets to the pathetic punchline.  You will wonder why you paid close attention for so long to hear the pitiful ending. 

Then you will sit on the edge of your chair and hope for another one.  

The NCAA has announced a change to the status of bowl games for post season play in 2024.  The designation of a “Game” implies a competition where each team marshals their best effort and skill to win a contest.  In post season 2023, there were 41 contests that used to be called Bowl Games.  Only three of those could be considered games.  All three of those were arranged to determine the National Championship.  The remaining 38 Bowls, at best, must be called “Exhibitions”. 

Let’s look at 2023 “Exhibitions”.  Starting at the top, the number 5 ranked Florida State Team, undefeated in the regular season, has at least eleven starters sit out the contest with Georgia and loses a squeaker 63 to 3.  This was nothing like a game.  FSU finishes one position out of the playoffs and the best effort they have for the “Exhibition” is one of the most lopsided losses in bowl history. 

This event is closely followed by the Ohio State versus Missouri “Exhibition”.  In the last regular season game, OSU has the ball in Michigan territory with less than a minute left in the game.  If they connect with the best receiver in the country (Harrison) on their last play of the game, they are number one in the country and locked in to the first seed in the National Championship playoff.  A Michigan interception with 35 seconds left stops the drive.  Ohio drops out of the top four and loses several key players.  Their starting quarterback and Harrison among them.  The odds makers immediately make them underdogs to the 2 loss Missouri team.  Never underestimate the skill of odds makers.  In the “Exhibition” Ohio never advanced the ball to the red zone once in the entire game.  The powerful buckeyes posted a whopping 3 points.  Not a “Game” and never intended to be a “Game”.           

How about attendance at the “Exhibitions”?  The Duke Mayo Bowl drew 42,925.  The Military Bowl attracted 35,849.  The historic Holiday Bowl had 35,317.  The Pop Tarts Bowl, in the attractive Orlando location, sold 31,111 tickets.  Finally, the Wasabi Bowl in venerable Fenway Park drew 16,238 fans.  There isn’t a high school team in Texas that doesn’t draw more fans for every home game than these “Exhibition” Bowls.  Fans don’t come because these are not games.  They are “Try Outs”.  Most of the Players who had sufficient skill to jump through the portals to a Sacred 20 team did so after the regular season.  Players who were not able to jump through the portals after the regular season are trying to show their stuff in hopes of making it to the top 20 or a low round NFL draft pick.    

According to the NCAA, the economics of college football are best served by promoting no more than 20 major football programs.  They are the ones with real money.  The remaining colleges are considered farm teams and the nature of post season play needs to be changed to support the goals of the Sacred 20.

In an effort to reduce the possibility of injuries associated with the “Try Outs”, there will be a number of rule changes for 2024.  First, all the exhibitions, other than the Championship Playoffs will be played with flag football rules.  Second there will be a skills competition.  The NCAA gurus favor a punt, pass and kick competition.  PP&K has been held by the NFL for 6 to 15 year olds for more than 50 years.  The event has been totally injury free.  The likelihood of any college prospects getting hurt is near zero.  Importantly, all 200 players on each team will be timed in the forty yard dash.  This riveting event, alone, will provide several hours of entertainment for the Bowl “Exhibition” fans.

They are also trying to weave in a pre or post Bowl “Exhibition” event called “Show me the Money”.  It will be in a game show format where fans can watch actual negotiations between players and player representatives.  They anticipate hilarious scenes where 315 pound defensive linemen attempt to intimidate 145 pound lawyers.

Never let it be said that the NCAA does not provide a great product for college football fans.  Of course, with the robust agenda of Bowl “Exhibitions”, the price of tickets will be going up.  It will set you back at least $350 to watch the 2024 season Wasabi “Exhibition” in Fenway.  The increased pricing should really boost attendance.  They may not eclipse the 16,238 mark set in 2023 but they will probably break 10,000.

For as long as I can remember, I have been a fan of cool stuff.  I’m not referring to popular status symbols.  I am talking about cool stuff.  When I find something cool, I buy it and I keep it forever.  It does not matter that no one else thinks that the stuff is cool.  If I do, I buy it and hold on to it eternally.

Perusing my massive storage unit, I have noted that a lot of my cool stuff was actually given to me when I was a child.  I think my appreciation for valuing cool things is genetic.  My parents were extremely skilled at identifying cool.  They gave a lot of cool to their four children and I kept all of mine. 

For example, in 1951 my parents gave me a Lionel train set for Christmas.  Very cool.  Seventy three years later, I still set up the Sante Fe engine and freight cars around my Christmas tree.  Every Christmas and birthday the cool collection of cool train stuff expanded.  By 1960, I had acquired hundreds of Lionel components.  Engines, train sets, fully operating logging stations, cattle unloading corrals, missile launching cars, railroad flagmen, etc.  I still have all of them.  At least all of them that survived the reckless behavior of ten year olds playing war games with model trains.  

Expanding on the toys and games category, I have three large boxes of metal trucks from the early fifties.  Fire Trucks, Graders, Steam Shovels, Dump Trucks, even a Coca Cola Delivery Truck. 

I have three complete Erector Sets.  What’s an Erector Set?  From 1913 to 1963 a fine company, AC Gilbert, made metal construction sets for kids.  They had tons of metal framing and electric engines. They came with instructions to create elevators, cars, trucks, trains, amusement park rides.  Anything you could think of.  In addition you could build your own designs.  These were kind of a crude forerunner to Lego sets.  Last Christmas, I encouraged my grandsons to get out the instruction booklet and build an elevator.  Somehow it was not as appealing as the most recent Grand Theft Auto release but they humored me and whipped up a fully functioning elevator that transported my small metal cars several stories into an imaginary garage.  How cool is that? 

How do you get three Erector Sets?  My parents, both having the cool gene, found two of them in the 70’s at garage sales.  Hard to believe but some people did not recognize the Gilbert products as cool and were actually emptying things out of their basements.  So now they are in my permanent collection of cool stuff.                

I have some great games, including the first five Jeopardy games ever sold and a nearly complete collection of Trivial Pursuit.    

I think old clocks are cool.  I’m talking about mechanical devices at least 100 years old.  When we lived in a big house, I had thirty of them banging away all around the place.  You had to love an 1860 Seth Thomas calendar clock that tracked the time, month, day, and date.  It knows which months have 30 days and which months have 31.  It knows that February has 28 days and every four years, it knows that February has 29 days.  The designers gave up at this point.  The mechanics did not account for the fact that leap year is eliminated at the turn of the century for four straight centuries and added back for the centuries divisible by five.  For example 1900 was not a leap year but 2000 was.  My British Tall Case clock, aka Grandfather, was hand crafted by Jonathan Handley in the 1830’s and is still accurate to less than a minute a week.  Tell me that old clocks are not cool.

Why is keeping cool stuff a problem?  High maintenance and low utility.  For example, a few years ago, I spent an entire day just organizing the erector sets.  I have had these beauties for forty years and the only time we have ever used them was to build the elevator last December.  We tried to play the 1960’s Jeopardy games.  For some reason none of us remembered that Sweden won the Gold in the 3×5 kilometer cross country skiing event at the 1960 Squaw Valley Olympics.  My 23 year old grandson rarely asks to play with the toy trucks anymore. 

When I hire McKinsey to review the efficiency of my life, I am not going to get high ratings for keeping and organizing all the cool stuff.  Basically, weeks of maintenance for a few hours of use. 

So I should empty the 5,000 square foot warehouse that stores seven full sets of Christmas decorations (including 20 strings of Noma bubble lights), every set of golf clubs I have owned since 1963, 45 clocks, eight boxes of Lionel trains, and two red rider BB guns (one with a compass in the stock), and the complete set of my mother’s copper bottom Revere Ware made in Rome New York in the 1950’s (including two double boilers and an egg poaching pan).   

No way!  You never know when friends and relatives will come to spend a few days with you. They may have, in tow, a four year old and a six year old.  Very likely, the classic 1970 Fisher Price pull toys and the big metal trucks will provide hours of entertainment to the small fry. 

Strangely, the original owner may spend as much time with this stuff as the four year olds. 

From a consumer perspective, Weber is the perfect American company. 

In 1951 George Stephens, a sheet metal fabricator in Chicago, crafted the first Weber Kettle Grill.  George was part owner of the Weber Brothers Metal Works and he liked to grill.  He took the top and bottom parts of metal buoys the company made for marine enterprises and fashioned a kettle grill for his personal use.  He made some for his friends, then he sold some to his friends, then he started to sell a lot of them to everybody.  He tweaked and improved things until he created the classic Weber Kettle.  The kettle has changed little over the last sixty years.

The Metal Works was a family owned and operated business that was founded in 1893.  Based on the extraordinary products and services they offer, I am not surprised that they are thriving 131 years later.

Every August, I batten down the hatches in Jacksonville and get ready for a three month move to Ann Arbor.  I really do tie a lot of things down.  We spend the most active part of hurricane season away from our house in Ponte Vedra.  So, I try to get everything ready for whatever hurricanes may pass by in our absence.  A key part of the preparation is anchoring all of my barbecue equipment and outdoor furniture.  The tables and chairs go in to the garage but the Traeger pellet smoker and Weber Summit grill stay tied down on the Lanai.  They both weigh around 200 pounds so I don’t like to move them very far.

This year, I decided to give them a thorough cleaning and that started me thinking about what a great company Weber is.  I burned all of the grease accumulation out of the inside of Summit and cleaned and polished the stainless steel outside.  When I finished, the grill was close to new in both appearance and operation. All eight of the burners work perfectly, the stainless steel was totally rust free and perfectly polished.

Why is this a big deal?  This grill is at least 25 years old and has been pounded extensively by me and my brother in law, Dennis Gray.  Dennis is a world class barbecuist and he used the Summit for many years in Chicago.  It stayed on his patio in all four seasons.  He and Connie moved to Florida.  His new home included a fabulous outdoor kitchen so he gave this magnificent piece of equipment to me.  It was one of the finest gifts I have ever received.  So I have grilled, smoked, rotisseried, or fried at least two tons of barbecue on this grill over the last five years.  Dennis has easily prepared another ten tons.  The grill went through Chicago winters and, probably worse, salt air at the beach house.  After 25 years, it springs back to new condition with a two hour cleaning.

I am a man who knows barbecue equipment.  I have owned more than 75 different smokers and grills.  Charcoal, gas, and electric.  Nothing has performed like the Weber Summit and nothing has come close to the longevity of this grill.  So I think, “Well, that’s a Weber for you.”

“That’s a Weber for you.”  These people have been providing such outstanding products for so many years that we have come to expect the very best from them.  We take it for granted.  Making quality products is not an accident.  It is a business philosophy.  Weber has incredible empathy.  They put themselves in the shoes of their customers and they make things that best satisfy the needs of everyone who uses them.  If it isn’t outstanding, it doesn’t make it to the market place.

How many Weber products do I currently own?  I have three different kettle grills: an eighteen inch model, the classic 22 inch kettle and a forty year old 25 inch kettle.  I have three Weber Smokers: two 18 inch models and a 22 inch beast that can smoke twelve racks of ribs.  Of course, I have the Summit propane grill.  I have given away more Weber smokers and grills than I currently own.  To the best of my knowledge, all but one of the Weber products I have ever purchased is still in use.  I bought a classic Kettle for my lake house in 1990.  It stayed on the deck for 25 years and the leg supports finally rusted out after a lot of hurricane seasons.  This was the only Weber I ever took to the junk yard.

In addition to the grills, I currently own twenty or thirty Weber accessories.  Rib racks, fish racks, rotisseries bars, griddles, Bluetooth thermometers, etc.  The designers at Weber put themselves in the weekend pit master’s seat and rolled out some very useful equipment.

The Weber “Deluxe Poultry Roaster” is a great example of the way Weber develops products.  Many years ago an innovating barbecuist stuck a chicken on an open can of beer and smoked it.  The chicken was very moist and flavorful.  Beer in the butt chicken became the rage.  It is a little difficult to get the chicken off the beer can, especially when everything is about 200 degrees Fahrenheit.  So different entrepreneurs developed “Beer in the butt” tools.  You could buy a little rack that held the beer and chicken in place on the grill and made it easier to remove the chicken for carving.  These accessories would set you back five to fifteen bucks.  So the Weber engineers go to work.  They develop a holder that captures the juices from the chicken, controls the moisture content, makes it very easy to remove for carving, is non stick and dishwasher safe.  The process using the Weber tool is easier.  The results are perfect and very consistent.  Clean up is as easy as possible.  For this, Weber will charge you $49.  I own four of these things.  I often do chickens two at a time and I have a house in Michigan and a house in Florida.  I use them a lot, not because they are Webers but because they make the best chicken.

Weber support is fantastic.  For example, I needed a grate for my 25 inch kettle.  I called product support and they asked me if the kettle was purchased before or after 1998.  I replied that it was made somewhere in the mid 1980’s.  “Okay, the pre ‘98 kettles are a slightly different diameter.  We will have it to you in a couple of days.”  They have not made that grill since 1998 but they had a replacement grate to ship me in 2023.  They know that we are still using these kettles after 40 years and the grates can’t hold up forever.  So they make and stock replacements.   I wonder if my great, great grand daughter will still be able to get a replacement when she is using my 25 incher in 2077?

Finally, Weber grilling and smoking instructions are spectacular.  Their R&D team includes some of the best barbecue chef’s in the country. When you knock off a day to make some barbecue, you want the results to be noteworthy.  I want my guests to grab me by the lapels and demand to know how they can smoke ribs like these.  More importantly, I want to be able to make ribs, for my own personal consumption, that are exquisite.  I considered it a complete victory when my friend Bubba said, “These may be the best ribs since Eve.”  There are a lot of steps involved in making World Class Barbecue.  Maintaining the grills and smokers can be complex and the recipes can be very involved.  Not only does Weber have staff who can answer questions about these things, they have compiled 15 to 20 volumes of instructions and cookbooks.  Every time I have created a meal using one of these manuals, the results were excellent. 

Another great example of Weber empathy.  Using a classic Weber smoker, my smoking time for excellent pulled pork is 14 hours.  That is a challenge.  If I am having guests for a feast at 7:00 PM, I have to start firing up the smoker at 4:00 AM.  I bought the “Weber Greatest Hits” cookbook and they have a recipe for pulled pork that required 9-10 hours.  If you are in a barbecue contest, you’re up all night anyway.  However, for personal consumption, starting at 4:00 AM is pretty inconvenient.  The Weber Chefs recognized the problem and went to work.  The recipe in the book uses the same smoking temperature as mine. How can we get the internal temperature of the pork shoulder to 195 four hours sooner?  The cookbook calls for injecting the pork shoulder with a mixture of apple juice and other things.  In essence, the cooking and tenderizing is accelerated as the marinade heats up inside the roast.  I followed the steps and prepared perfect pulled pork in 10 hours.  No change in taste.  Just 4 hours less smoking time. That means I can get started at 7:30 AM.  Thanks to Weber skill and empathy, we are eating a lot more pulled pork these days.           

So way back in 1952 when George Stephens decided that he could make and sell a pretty good grill, Weber forged a commitment to provide the best possible solutions to their customers.  72 years later they are still following that business plan.  It may take a little more time and the products may be more expensive but let’s put the best stuff in the hands of our patrons. Don’t you wish that every American Company followed that business strategy?   

I know that if I am ever in need of a marker buoy, my first call will be to Weber, Inc.

One sunny day in June of 1957, Kenny Scodeller pounded on my front door.  I answered and he said.  “Get your baseball glove, you’re going to work!”  Ken was a local celebrity on Miner Street and one of the funniest people I ever met.  He was a great athlete at St. Thomas, graduating in 1956.  Now he was a starter on Western Michigan’s baseball team and had aspirations to play pro ball. 

I was in awe.  What did this superstar have in mind for his ten year old neighbor?  Ken said, “I am playing center field for the Ann Arbor Travelers and we need a batboy.  We are practicing at West Park in 15 minutes and you are going with me to start a new career.”  I grabbed my mitt and we started the three block trek to the baseball diamond at West.

The Travelers are a great Ann Arbor story.  Three Ann Arborites formed a semi professional baseball team to compete in the Michigan region of the National Baseball Congress.  Russ McCalla was the principal owner and Head Coach.  Dick Hager was part time second baseman and full time assistant coach, and John Dudley was the business manager.         

All three simply loved baseball.  They wanted to field a team of very talented players that could entertain the Ann Arbor fans two or three times a week during the summer at West Park.  And the players were very good.  There were young players like Kenny and Pete Donovich, on their way up in the baseball world.  Playing college ball or looking for an opportunity to sign a minor league contract.  There were veterans who had played at the double A and triple A level and just wanted to stay in the game a little longer.  It was a great mix of people.  Farmers, factory workers, business executives, college kids and a Doctor.  Some young, some old but all had outstanding baseball skills.  All were equal on the team and they were only interested in playing and winning baseball games.  In the fifties and sixties, the Travelers were the best baseball team in town, including the University of Michigan.

The fans responded with a loyal group of 100 to 200 people for most of the home games.

“Semi pro” is probably a bad description for the Travelers.  No one sold tickets to the home games.  We passed the hat for donations from the fans.  The team would earn prize money for finishing high in the State Tournament and for doing well in the National Tournament in Wichita Kansas if they won the State.  None of the players were actually paid but the owners covered all of the equipment expenditures and most of the travel expenses. Financially, it was a losing enterprise for the three owners.

Why the strange team name?  John Dudley came up with the name because we really had to travel to find opponents.  We played Peterson Tire in Mansfield Ohio, Sullivans Furniture in Grand Rapids. We played teams in Vermontville Michigan, Ionia Michigan, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo and Tecumseh Ontario.  We played the Jackson prison team. Obviously we only played them on their field.  Always a home game for them and they always had a loud boisterous crowd for support.   On a short trip, we played a team in Wyandotte.  They had a high school kid in left field named Willie Horton.  He hit two 400 foot home runs to beat us.

Coach McCalla explained my duties at the first practice.  He said, “You are fully in charge of the bats.”  Big responsibility for a ten year old.  Before the season started, each player selected a couple of bats that suited their swings.  Each game we set up a bat rack in front of the dugout.  We had about 25 bats.  Mostly Louisville Sluggers with a few Adirondacks.  Both bat makers would model the bats after the ones actually used by major league players.  Nellie Fox had a huge handle and a medium barrel.  Mickey Mantle had a thin handle and huge barrel. Harmon Killebrew had a 36 inch bat that weighed about eighty pounds. I carefully set them up so that the players could easily identify them when they were moving to the on deck circle.  Russ said, “Two things are very important here.  Never set the bats up with the handles crossed and never start to put the bats back in the bag before the last out of the game. Either of those two situations will guarantee that we lose the contest.  When someone hits the ball, you need to go up and retrieve the bat without getting involved in the play.  You are also in charge of foul balls.  This isn’t the majors and I can’t afford to toss out a new ball every time someone fouls one off.”  Foul ball responsibility trumped bat retrieval responsibilities.  When one went in to the stands or the weeds I had to bring it back.  Coach said that he needed to get me a uniform.  What number did I want?  I asked for 37 which was the number for my favorite center fielder, Jimmy Piersall.

In game conditions, this job required your full attention.  In fact, on the “danger scale”, being a batboy in the fifties was right up there with bull fighting and capping oil well fires.  I stationed myself just outside the on deck circle.  I needed to be sure that the on deck batter didn’t conk me when he was warming up.  I had to watch every pitch because occasionally someone would send a line drive foul ball straight at me. If it was a pop foul, the catcher or first baseman could run me through the backstop.  In addition, I had to pay close attention to the play on the field to make sure that I would not be run over or smacked by a throw to home plate when I was collecting the bat.

We had a lot of colorful players on the team.  The most passionate player was Denny Fitzgerald.  Denny played third base or catcher. He was the last University of Michigan football player to play without a face mask.  Fitz was a great role model for everyone.  Everything he did was at full throttle.  He was a letterman on Michigan’s wrestling team. He was a marine. He chased every foul ball with the same ferocity as his 99 yard Rose Bowl kickoff return. 

George Pratt was an outstanding pitcher for many years.  George had an incredible technique for dropping down a bunt.  He was always the last batter in the lineup.  As the pitcher, everyone assumed he would not swing at a few pitches in hopes of getting on base with a walk.  For the first pitch, he would stand in the batter’s box holding the bat on his shoulder with one hand.  His left hand was down at his side, nowhere near the bat.  The fielders relaxed knowing that George was going to take the first pitch.  The pitcher simply threw a strike down the middle of the plate.  With one hand, George would drop the bat and often hit the pitch with a perfect bunt.  This took incredible eye hand coordination but George could do it.  The defense was flat footed and if the ball was out of reach for the catcher, he would easily scamper to first base.    

Jim Miller was another player with a very unusual talent.  Jim was truly ambidextrous and he was a pitcher.  On some occasions, he would pitch to the right handed hitters with his right hand and the left handed hitters with his left hand.  One Saturday, we were short of pitchers.  Jim pitched a double header.  The first game he threw with his right hand and won.  The second he threw with his left hand and won.

Our nemesis in Michigan was Sullivans Furniture.  They had talent.  A couple of their guys were on the Detroit Tigers taxi squad.  Usually, the squad members were called up to play a game or two in the majors every year.  They were that good. The NBC State Tournament was a double elimination event.  Half the time we were playing Sullivans for the title. 

One year we were playing the dreaded Furniture team for the State Championship.  A trip to the National Championship in Wichita was on the line.  Sullivans had a four run lead after eight innings.  If they retired us in the top of the ninth, they were the champs.  Unbelievably, before we went to bat, I noticed that they had put their bats back in the bat bag, anticipating that the game was over.  Coach McCalla noticed this as well and said to me “We can’t lose. Just watch!”.  Exactly as the coach predicted, we rallied for six runs and shut down Sullivans in the bottom of the ninth.  “Never incur the curse of early bat bagging!”

So spring is coming to Michigan again.  I wish I could resume my batboy duties for the Travelers one more time.  The revitalized baseball diamond at West Park isn’t much different than the original field. I’m sure that there are a dozen players today as enthusiastic and talented as the group we fielded in the 50’s. What could be better than spending a spring day with twelve people who simply love to play baseball?  I might be a little slow in running down the foul balls but I could do everything else without getting hurt.  I spent a great five years with the team.  No doubt they taught me a lot about baseball that few ten year olds would ever learn.  More importantly, they showed me that following your passion is one of the best things you can do in life.             

I had a very unusual experience at my favorite fast food outlet this morning and I am trying to determine what it means. 

For many years I have used McDonald’s as a key economic indicator.  I don’t review the financial performance.  I don’t care if revenue is up or down.  Profits and market share are not part of the analysis.  The main indicator I use is the response from the person who takes my order at the “drive thru”.  If I can clearly and easily understand the person taking my order, the economy is in trouble.  If the Valedictorian from Penn is working at a fast food franchise until they find a better job, we are in a recession.  Lately, the communications have been mixed.  I have found a few “drive thru” professionals to be very articulate and others completely incomprehensible.  So I figure the economy is treading water.

This morning, however, I had a totally unique experience after ordering a Sausage McMuffin Without the Egg.  The young lady who recorded my order said that the charge would be $2.10 and I could settle the transaction at the first window.  Having lost most of my small bills on golf bets, I had to pay the tab with a twenty.  The pleasant and helpful eighteen year old handed me my change and she said:  “I don’t think this is enough.”   I replied:  “I beg your pardon?” and I counted the change.  It was $15.86.  At this point my CPA background came to the surface and I said:  “You owe me $2.04.”  She replied that she did not have any $1s and offered some quarters.  “Oh crap, I only have two quarters.”  I said: “Okay, we are getting closer. You owe me a buck fifty four.”  “Here, take all the nickels and dimes.”  “You still owe me $.69.”  “I’m sorry, I don’t have it and I can’t pay you.”  I said:  “Hey, don’t worry.  You gave it your best shot.  However it is 8:15 in the morning.  How are you going to settle up with the other cash paying customers you encounter today?  You don’t have any money!”  She replied, “It is going to be a long day.”

Wow!  The world’s largest fast food company ran out of money.  How could this happen and what does it mean?  This is something that I never expected from my key economic barometer. In addition, this is something I never encountered before in the United States or anywhere else.  I spent a lot of time in Trinidad, a truly third world country, and never found a merchant that could not give me the right change.  To say that this makes the United States look like a third world country is an insult to Trinidad.  The Trinnies always paid their debts.

Is this a Micro economic problem or a Macro issue? 

It definitely is a Micro problem.  At least one McDonalds can’t give change to their customers.  I assume they pasted a sign in the window that says “We only accept Credit Cards” after my transaction.     

Unfortunately, it may be a macro economic issue.  Perhaps a lot or most of the Golden Arch franchises in the United States are out of money.  They address the sales issue by going “All Credit Card” but that has a lot of ancillary challenges.  For McDonalds, there is a clearing delay in processing Credit Cards and a fee from the bank that reduces their income.  Sure they can execute the current sale but they have a delay in getting their cash and they won’t get as much.  If they have a problem with their margins (the difference between the $2.10 sales price for a sausage McMuffin and the cost of making the delectable treat) things will only get worse as time passes. 

Certainly, McDonalds is feeling the impact of higher costs.  When food prices went up with inflation, they increased for you, me and Mickey D’s as well.  Then, the minimum wage increased and some very large states require a living wage for all fast food employees.  In the past, many of these jobs were part time positions for students and others who enjoyed the additional income.  A high schooler could work a few hours a week and fund his or her entertainment budget.  This seemed to work for everyone.  With the $20 an hour requirement, total wages went up but actual work hours declined.  When a $20 wage became a requirement, the fast food outlets countered by reducing staff to the bare minimum and they crunched their profit margins as much as possible.  Some vendors are reducing the number of full time employees by cutting back the number of hours everyone works. In most states, part time employees are not entitled to the same benefits as full time workers.  Paying less for benefits is a partial offset to the financial impact of higher hourly wages. 

Why doesn’t McDonalds simply adjust the sales price to their traditional profit margins?  Because a lot of their diners can’t pay the higher price. Their customers could afford stopping by on the way home and buying dinner for four for $25 dollars but they can’t afford stopping by for $50.  With the increased cost, perhaps the breakeven point for McDonalds on that order is $45 dollars. In fact, the cost increases may have driven a lot of families to peanut butter sandwiches. So a franchise in Sacramento may really be up against it.  Smaller profit margins and fewer sales.    

On a macro basis, the switch to “Credit Cards Only” also has a very negative impact on the buying power of the US consumer.  Before the jump in inflation three years ago, 60% of Americans were living “paycheck to paycheck”.  Every dollar they earned, they needed to spend to support themselves and their families.  When inflation hit, they suddenly did not have enough income to pay the bills.  There was a small rise in income but it was much less than the rise in inflated cost.  So, many of us rang up credit card debt to make it through the month.  There really were not a lot of options and we hoped the price increases were temporary.  Over the three year period, the percentage increase declined but prices were still rising.  Nothing got cheaper and the increased cost for the three years was around 20%.  The 60% living “paycheck to paycheck” find themselves getting farther behind each month and it isn’t getting any better. 

According to Forbes, the average interest rate for credit cards, in the US on July 29, 2024, is 27.62%.  When I charge $50 at McDonalds and put it on the card, the cost of the meal just increased 27.62% or $13.81.  That dinner that set me back $25 a few years ago just cost me $63.81.  What choice did I have?  I don’t have the fifty bucks and we need to eat.  After two years of my income falling short of my expenses, I have now maxed out my credit cards.  I can only pay the minimum and I have reached the limit on all my cards.  Where do I get the money to pay the cards?  I take an early withdrawal from my IRA account.  This tacks on a 10% tax penalty and the distribution is taxable to me.  Assuming I am in the 24% tax bracket, my meal is another 34% more expensive, raising the total cost to $85.51.  The real cost of my dinner has gone from $25 a few years ago to $85.51 today. 

Even worse, I am simply making minimum payments and I am going to have the same problem at the end of next month.

An equally bad outcome is that I am taking a big chunk out of my retirement savings.  The IRA mathematics works beautifully if you start contributing early and compound earnings in your account for many years.  By paying my credit card bills out of my IRA, I am destroying the ultimate value of my IRA savings.  Anyone who does this for a few years, very likely, will have to work well beyond the 67 year retirement age.

There are a lot of people in this boat.  Remember, before the inflation debacle started, 60% of Americans were living “paycheck to paycheck”.

How does this turn around? Suffice to say, it is very unlikely that prices will ever decline.  The best we can hope for is that they stop going up.  If prices stabilize and wages go up, we can get to “paycheck to paycheck” again.  Hopefully, many will progress past that point.

So, many of us are not feeling better when our politicians tell us the economy is great.  For us it is simple.  I ratcheted my credit cards to the max and I am hitting my retirement accounts.  Nothing is cheaper and it isn’t getting better for me.  Most of us have not run through the process of computing the real cost of inflation but we absolutely feel it at the end of each month when we pay the bills.

McDonalds continues to be my best economic indicator.  I was taken aback when I found that they ran out of money this morning.  I only hope the next time I order a Quarter Pounder With Cheese that the most recent Rhodes Scholar is not the person telling me, in the Queens English and with perfect timber and diction, to “Pay at the first window and please remember, we only accept credit cards.” 

Artificial Intelligence is “The theory and development of systems able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence.”

Artificial Intelligence has changed my life.  Stephen Hawking believed that Artificial Intelligence would be the end of mankind.  I disagree. Without Artificial Intelligence, I would need to be in an Assisted Living Facility.

Somehow, as a young man, I made my way through life without any help. I woke up, showered, shaved, put on the suit and tie and made it to work with no external prompts.  I attacked the challenges of the day, made money for my employer, and accelerated through a career with my own native intelligence.  

There were the occasional blips.  As a software sales professional, I once stepped off an airplane in Philadelphia and had no idea why I was there.  I bought the ticket so there must be someone I needed to call on but I had no idea who it might be.  My client base were insurance companies.  There are a lot of them in Philadelphia and I was doing business with most of them. I called my Administrative Assistant in Atlanta who read the alphabetical lists of insurers in the city of brotherly love.  When she got to Colonial Penn, my native intelligence kicked in and I was back on track.

Now that I am retired, there are no occasional blips.  Everything is a blip.  So I have designed a number of creative, Artificial, tools that help me function at a fairly competent level.  The primary tool is the list.  At some point in my life, I found that I was a lot more productive if I started each day with a simple list of the five most important things to do that day. 

            Haircut

            Set up Golf with John

            Fertilize Citrus

            Find a Cure for Cancer

            Make Spaghetti Sauce

When I was young, I would easily remember these simple goals.  Now, after several “I thought you were making dinner.” comments quickly followed by “We are not having pizza again!”  I have employed the great AI List Tool.  Properly utilized, AI memory keeps me functioning as a competent adult.  There are two important criteria.  First, I need to put the task on the list.  Second, I must read the list at least every hour during the day.  Both of these functions require training and discipline.  I rarely hear the “NO PIZZA!” comment any more.  

As native intelligence winds down, my reliance on Artificial Intelligence has expanded.  I now have at least four lists going at all times.  One on the kitchen counter, one in the office, one on the bedroom dresser, and one in the car.  They all have different purposes that roughly relate to their locations.  The kitchen list is food oriented (menu plan, grocery list, etc.),  the car list has a lot of destinations (Walmart, Publix, Poker Parlor), the bedroom list has broad goals (find a solution to the federal debt problem, research Toronto vacation, etc.).  Usually one or more of the lists will have a task that says “Go look at the list on the dresser” or “Add this to the list in the car”.        

I am thankful that breathing is an involuntary brain function.  Otherwise, I might forget to put it on the list and I would be dead.      

Although my wife and I are retired, we have above average complexity in our lives.  We live in two different homes in Florida and spend football season in Ann Arbor Michigan.  We orchestrate at least seven world class tailgates each year.  We both enjoy cooking.  I have a passion for barbecue and frequently create dinner for 20 – 30 friends.  So now the artificial intelligence expands to include “To/From” lists to move equipment and supplies between locations, timelines for preparing barbecue feasts, and equipment lists for the diverse tailgates.  Even a healthy idiot savant could not keep track of all the variables involved in these activities.     

Through the wonders of Artificial Intelligence (often using Microsoft Word and Excel), we cope.

I know I am “losing it”.  I only take four pills a day but I have to rely on the old people’s pill organizer from CVS (a great Artificial Intelligence tool) to avoid omissions and duplications.  I have Bunn Coffee Makers in all three homes.  When I am gone for a while, I clean them and run five pots of water through each to ensure the reservoirs are clean and fresh.  This takes about a half hour and, invariably, I lose count of how many pots I have run.  Perhaps, I am analyzing one of my seventeen lists.  The coolest AI tool I have helps me with this process.  When I pour a pot of water in the Bunn, I put a sugar packet on the counter.  When I get to five packets, I’m done.  My wife watched me do this and failed to see the brilliance of the technique.  Fortunately, I passed the subsequent mental competency test.

Karel Capek and Stephen Hawking may be concerned about Artificial Intelligence taking over the world.  I am not.  In fact, AI is the only thing keeping me functioning at a somewhat adult level.  I know that someday my children are going to prop me up in a corner and shoot food at me with a slingshot.  Thanks to Artificial Intelligence I’m not there yet.