Warning Signs

There are a few things in life that have very clear warning signs.  We should read the signs and avoid these activities.

For example, buying gold and silver from the people who advertise on TV.  I can’t watch five minutes of commercial TV without listening to a commodities guru tell me how incredibly lucrative buying gold and silver will be.  These have to be the dumbest people in the world.  They know that the returns on these commodities will be astronomical but they want to sell all of their gold and silver to me.  Why would anyone sell something that is going to triple in value next year?   Shouldn’t they be advertising that they want to buy all of my gold and silver?  This really puzzles me.  I’m not a commodity expert but I am skeptical that silver will return to its all time high and gold will be $3,000 an ounce later this year.

We should avoid robot calls or phone solicitations from anyone.  I never intentionally answer a robot call.  95 times out of 100, if I don’t have a number in my contact list, I let the call go to voice mail. Very few robot calls make it that far. However, occasionally one shows up with a Mt. Airy area code and exchange indicator. Aunt Flossie lives in Mt Airy.  She is not in great health.  Maybe her neighbor is calling me for some assistance.  So I answer and the debacle begins. 

“Mr. Sinelli, you may not know when you are going to die but you can be certain that you are going to die.  Like most Americans you probably have not prepared for this event and you are about to put all of your loved ones in a very bad spot.  Today, however, is your lucky day.  I can provide you with burial insurance that will lift this impending burden from the shoulders of your dear family members.”  I respond “Are you a licensed insurance agent?”  The caller says “Yes, I am licensed in the State of Florida.”  I say “Don’t you have this a little backward?  You know that I am going to die and you are going to bet $10,000 of Acme American Fiduciary Life and Casualty’s money that I am going to live.”  “Well, it’s insurance.”  “No, it’s a bet.  I bet $50 a month that I am going to die and you bet $10,000 that I won’t.  I think that is a little macabre. I also find betting on my mortality very depressing.   Not only are you making a bad bet for Acme, the stress you are creating for me may be accelerating my demise.  We should end this conversation right now.”  Click.   

“Mr. Sinelli, are you aware that your automobile warranty is about to expire?”  “No, I wasn’t aware of that potential catastrophe.  What car are we talking about?” Caller, “Your current vehicle.”  Me, “The 2015 F 150?”  Caller, “Yeah that’s it.”  Me, “I had no idea that I still had a maintenance policy on the truck.  I sold it two years ago when I moved to the beach.  Now, I don’t even own a car. Several years ago, in a conscious effort to save the planet, I bought a golf cart and that is what I use for all of my transportation needs. Rarely, I will engage public transportation but I never drive a private vehicle other than the golf cart. I keep pretty good records.  Let’s see, I sold the F 150 seven hundred and two days ago.  My five year maintenance warranty premium was $976 dollars, using the monthly proration refund formula authorized by the State of Florida Insurance Commissioner, you owe me $412.  When can I expect the check?”  Caller, “I’m not sure. By the way, would you like a warranty policy on that golf cart?”  Click.       

“Mr. Sinelli, you own a lot of real estate and we want to buy some of it.  Do you want to sell the lot in Putnam County?”  “No, I am anticipating another great depression and I plan on farming that lot.  Are you looking at the plat?  I am going to put the travel trailer in the northeast corner.  The chicken coup is going in the southeast corner.  With three acres I can support a large vegetable garden, three or four pigs and a milk/beef cow.  When the bottom falls out next year don’t stop by.  I will be defending the place, vigorously, against the short sighted people who never prepared for the crash.”  Click.    

My wife Susan offers this great insight.  We were driving the back roads in Georgia enroute to a client in Columbus.  We passed a single wide on a small lot with a sign in front that said “Fortune Teller”.   She said, “I don’t think I would take advice from that person. If they are adept at predicting the future, you would think that they would be living in a more upscale home.  I want to see that sign in front of the 1,000 acre ranch, with the 7,500 square foot house”.  Nothing wrong with living in a single wide but an expert oracle should be able to demonstrate a little more success.  If Elon Musk doesn’t elect to sell his Fortune Telling skills, I’m going to take my advice for the future from the lady who just picked nine straight winners at the horse track and drove there in her Maserati. 

Similar logic applies to the “Get Rich Quick Books”.  If you really know how to make $5 million in the real estate market using other peoples’ money, why would you tell others how to do it?  You could ring up $20 million a year.  Why invite a few thousand people to compete with you for $100,000 in royalties? 

So every day we see a lot of signs that warn us about something or give us sage advice.

I saw an interesting sign in the men’s room of my favorite Bistro.  It says “Employees must wash hands.  If no employees present, please wash your own hands.”

So I am taking my car to the repair shop when the “Check Engine” light comes on.  I am not going to feed the Bears.  I will be cautious about the bridge freezing before the road surface, even in July.  I am going to wash my hands.  I will wear a mask when it is required. I will turn off my cell phone.  I will not get in the express check out lane if I have more than eight items. I will beware of the dog, the snakes, the alligators, free range cattle, buffalo, mosquitos, low flying aircraft, wild hogs, and rabid raccoons.  I am not going to spit into the wind.

In essence, I am going to take my mother’s sage advice.  When the little voice says “Don’t do this!”  I am going to listen to the little voice.