Let’s imagine that there is a small world consisting of sixty people. All sixty of these people have industrialized processes that sustain and improve their lives. Industry makes food, shelter and clothing. It enriches their lives with leisure and entertainment. Unfortunately, there are some undesirable bi-products of the industrial process. The air and water near the people who manufacture stuff suffers.
Another bi-product of industrialization is a volatile and dangerous gas called Cabluigen. If Cabluigen reaches a specific level it will definitely explode killing all sixty of the small world’s inhabitants. The good news is that Cabluigen will degrade at a very constant rate. So if the small world citizens extract the gas and store it in a large container, they will not have any difficulties as long as they do not add Cabluigen to the container faster than it naturally disappears.
The shift to industrialization was not made equally by all sixty citizens. Two or three of the inhabitants moved headlong into manufacturing. The others who were late to the party were intent on making up for lost time. Surprisingly, this offered great opportunity to all sixty citizens. The fifteen or twenty who were suffering with air and water pollution could close their factories. They could still get cheap stuff by letting the gung ho newcomers make everything in their corner of the world. Smog and water pollution would abate for the initial producers when they shut the factories in their countries but they could still reap the benefits of good cheap products by purchasing them from their neighbors.
For years, the sixty inhabitants have been more focused on improving their lifestyles without much concern for Cabluigen levels. Industrialization and Cabluigen production was not at all proportional to the natural rate of Cabluigen decay. The citizens with factories created much more Cabluigen than the other citizens. In fact, one of the sixty inhabitants produces 28% of the world’s Cabluigen and the top five producers create 62% of the gas.
For several years Cabluigen, has been added to the tank faster than the degradation rate. A concerned citizen, Dr. Seymour Perrill, decided to scientifically analyze the rising Cabluigen levels. Dr. Perrill’s findings were shocking and depressing. He determined that if the sixty citizens of the world did not reduce the production of Cabluigen to the rate of natural degradation in the next ten years, the world would explode shortly thereafter terminating all life on the planet.
Very simply, if the sixty residents did not solve the problem in the next ten years, no one could prevent the end of the world from happening.
Needless to say this was very unwelcome news to the occupants of small world. Their reactions were all self serving. No one wanted to forego the pleasures of industrialization. Some attacked the messenger. Surely, Dr. Perrill has miscalculated. I can’t see giving up my private jet because of these crack pot calculations. The largest producer of Cabluigen pointed out that he was late in utilizing technology so he did not intend to reduce his industrialization until he had enjoyed as much of the benefits as others who preceded him.
Fifteen or twenty citizens decided that they could solve the problem by dropping their production of Cabluigen to zero. They believed that each person should voluntarily join them. However, the late industrializers made a valid point and it did not seem fair to ask them to live by the same standards. More importantly, none of the sixty citizens wanted to give up the benefits of cheap lifestyle improvements by forcing the citizen most responsible for manufacturing them to change their manufacturing methods.
The problem was that the tank holding Cabluigen did not care where it came from. When it exceeds capacity, for any reason, it is going to explode. Fifteen people cutting back production to zero while not addressing the primary polluter is like killing off harmful black mold in the prison’s gas chamber.
So a quarter of the planet’s population changed their behavior. They were colder in the winter and hotter in the summer. They still had a plethora of manufactured goods but the pollution of making these things was in someone else’s backyard. All fifteen achieved their goal of zero Cabluigen production, largely by sending production of their stuff to other countries. The biggest polluters promised to change their ways but they never altered anything. Cheap stuff could only be manufactured with low energy costs. All of the low energy sources threw off a lot of Cabluigen. Dr. Seymour Perrill did annual studies and reports indicating that science behind the initial ten year calculation had not changed.
Nine years, eleven months, and twenty nine days after the initial study (ironically, it was the month of February and a leap year), Dr. Perrill set up a lawn chair and a plastic table in his front yard. He arranged a large tumbler of gin, a small snifter of vermouth and a jar of blue cheese stuffed olives on the table. Halfway through the third martini, KABLOOEY, the world exploded and all sixty occupants died.
Great post, Mike. Very creative, and a sobering message as well!